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Here are some words of insight ahead of Clearing, shaped by this year’s standout data – with thanks to Mark Corver & UCAS for the insight & info.

Clearing’s New Contours

UCAS data shows a mixed bag: more UK 18-year-olds applying, but fewer as a proportion of the population. That’s three years of decline, although the rate isn’t worsening. A trend to watch, but maybe not panic over.

What’s juicier? 19-year-olds are back. Applications from this group are up 5% year-on-year, the biggest jump in a decade. It could be deferred demand, but it’s lifting numbers for lower-tariff institutions and buffering market gaps. Our response? Broaden the lens.

“The rise in older applicants coming through Clearing signals a clear need to broaden our competitive targeting strategy. Unlike school-leavers, these students aren’t tied to results day and tend to apply on their own timeline. That means we need a more sustained approach July to September with relevant campaigns before and beyond the traditional August peak. Much of our messaging is related to the traditional student cycle, maybe we need to be more accessible in our messaging to the older applicant.”

Ashlea Sinden, Paid Media Director

AI’s Glow-Up and Choose your own adventure

AI is the breakout winner, now making up 5% of all full-time computing applications, with interest up 15% among women and 12% among men. Meanwhile, traditional computing courses are down by around 10%.

This may well be the “generative AI effect”. Tools like ChatGPT could be changing perceptions, if AI can code for you, why learn to code?

Engineering and technology continue to grow, but core sciences like chemistry, biosciences and physics are still in decline. One to watch for future skills planning.

“A-Level results season just got juicier! UCAS data shows the usual chaos, but with a twist. 19-year-olds are back in the game (gap year glow-up?), AI courses are booming and offer rates are like the price of Oasis reunion tickets, going up and up (thanks, dynamic pricing). But the gem? Search behaviour is shifting. Students aren’t just typing ‘best unis for law’, they’re asking ChatGPT. We’re not just tracking students anymore; we’re tracking how platforms like Google, TikTok and AI tools are shaping the journey. Time to rethink the funnel, it’s less linear, more ‘choose your own adventure’.”

Chris Rogers, Managing Director

Offer Inflation and the Competitive Crunch

Offer rates are climbing. UK 18-year-olds now sit at 80%, a record high. Expect fierce competition and more filled spots come C&C, particularly at higher-tariff institutions who are moving fast and making big bets (ahead of possible future number caps).

That leaves lower-tariff and Post-92s facing a far tougher battlefield this year.

“With higher-tariff institutions flooding the market, lower-tariff and Post-92s can’t win on volume, they’ll need to win on specificity and their USPs. That means tighter geo-targeting, sharper creative relevance from the student’s perspective not the university’s (think: ‘why here, why now’), and a strong approach to negative keywording and audience exclusions to reach the right audience.”

Ashlea Sinden, Paid Media Director

Looking Ahead with Optimism

While market pressures are still very present, there are clear signals of renewed confidence in parts of the sector. Some providers are even discussing increasing course capacity, not something we usually hear this far into the cycle.

“Clearing and Confirmation (C&C) has undergone notable changes in recent years. In 2025, ongoing market pressures suggest that institutions relying heavily on recruitment during Clearing will continue to face intense competition. However, there are positive indicators: while some declines in application numbers persist, these are diminishing. Encouragingly certain subject areas, reflected in the June UCAS data release, have shown impressive growth, helping to balance more challenging areas of the course portfolio.

Interestingly, I’ve had several conversations about increasing course capacity in some fields, an uncommon topic at this stage in the cycle, and a sign of renewed confidence, I hope.

While this period is always accompanied by a certain level of pressure, we enter it with a sense of optimism. Despite changes to the C&C landscape, the core operational principles remain unchanged: thorough planning, meticulous checking, and strong communication are as essential as ever. Most importantly, the value of teamwork continues to play a critical role.

Wishing the sector a successful Clearing.”

Jo Redfern Evans, CEO

Written by the Cubed collective.

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